GOP’s South Texas Victory Does Not Mean Hispanics Nationwide Are Tilting Toward The Party, by Pedro de Alvarado

Earlier, November 2020: POLITICO Discovers Trump-Supporting Tejanos on the Border

If only because of the illegal-alien invasion at the southwest border, Republicans have been rightly optimistic about crushing Biden’s party in November. And Mexico-born Mayra Flores’ victory in the special election for Texas 34th congressional district has only reinforced those not unwarranted hopes [Newly elected Mayra Flores on Democrats: ‘They feel entitled to our vote’, by David Cohen, Politico, June 19, 2022]. Yet GOP Central Planners must not think that Flores’ success means Hispanics will run to the GOP nationwide, and again tilt at the windmill of the Hispanic vote while ignoring the white middle class. South Texas is unique, and very unlike major cities where Hispanics are monolithically Democrat and will stay that way.

Texas 34 is 85 percent Hispanic and it has been solidly Democrat for ages [Republicans flip U.S. House seat in South Texas, historically a Democratic stronghold, by Patrick Svitek, The Texas Tribune, June 14, 2022]. But incumbent Rep. Filemon Vela Jr. announced in March 2021 that he would not run for re-election, despite winning 55 percent to 42 against Republican Rey Gonzalez Jr. in 2020. Curiously, Joe Biden won the district by a smaller margin, 51-37. For perspective, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton won the district handily during their presidential runs, 61-38 and 59-37.

Vela quit to accept a job with the K Street Bandits in the Akin Gump lobbying firm [The Texas Tribune U.S. Rep. Filemon Vela will resign early from Congress, by Abby Livingston, The Texas Tribune, March 24, 2022]. That positioned Flores to win and finish Vela’s term, after which she’ll tackle Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the newly-redrawn 34.

Flores’ background is curious. She was born in Tamaulipas state in Mexico, and her husband is a Border Patrol agent named John Vallejo, so not all Mexican-Americans are keen about mass migration. Unlike mass migration boosters such as Jorge Ramos, who likely enjoys the services of a helot class of servants, many Hispanics must deal with illegal aliens in the workforce and recognize that they push down wages.

As for Gonzalez, he has represented the 15th district since 2017. Once a safe Democratic district, it’s become more competitive in the past decade. Hilary Clinton won the district by a comfortable 56-40, though in 2020 Biden defeated Donald Trump by a thin, 2-points, 50-48. Gonzalez won by just 3, 50-47.

So yes, appearances are, Hispanics are tilting Republican, and that’s likely good news for Flores [Trump Didn’t Win the Latino Vote in Texas. He Won the Tejano Vote, by Jack Herrera, Politico, November 11, 2017]. Most notable was Republican success in Zapata County. Democrats won easily there in 2016, 66 percent to 33. But Donald Trump won in 2020, 52-47 — the first time in a century that the GOP took the county during a presidential election, and in a year when its presidential candidate lost [First Reading: Why it was Viva Trump! in Zapata County by Jonathan Tilove, Austin-American Statesman, November 5, 2020].

Similarly, last summer, Hidalgo County Republican chieftain Javier Villalobos won his mayoral race in McAllen, Texas, which is 85 percent Hispanic and reliably Democratic [More Latinos Bid ‘Adios’ to Democrats, by William McGurn, The Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2021]. Villalobos’ victory was the first time in decades that a Republican took the mayor’s seat [Republicans think they can take South Texas—especially after a win in McAllen, by James Barragan, The Texas Tribune, June 11, 2021].

Republicans are understandably encouraged. On the heels of Flores’ victory, Outkick founder Clay Travis declared that Hispanics are “overwhelmingly breaking in favor of the Republican Party because Democrats have become totally insane” [Hispanics Swing Republican In Texas Primary, Clay Travis Reacts, by Outkick Flash, Outkick, June 15, 2022]. He added that Hispanics are drifting towards the GOP “because they believe in America … because they have strong family values.” The editors of National Review argued that Flores’ victory on June 14 “portends a major shift in the American political landscape” [An Earthquake in South Texas, by The Editors, National Review, June 16, 2022].

Well, encouraging as all this is, particularly Flores’ victory, GOP-Con Inc. Brain Trusters had better understand what appears to be a pro-GOP move among Hispanics.

Yes, the Democratic Party’s embrace of Wokery is causing blowback among non-black minorities. As Washington Watcher II wrote here, law-and-order issues and Brandon’s Border Treason are prompting various non-white groups to reconsider membership in the Rainbow Coaliton. The border is particularly concerning to South Texas Hispanics. They must deal with the results of mass migration every day [Democrat Mayor Begs Biden Not to Release Illegals into His City, by Joe Hyde, San Angelo Live, February 18, 2021].

However, as I’ve written before, the GOP shouldn’t break out the champagne just yet, and must not fall for the anecdotal fallacy; i.e., that a victory here or there means the party is poised to pick up the majority of the Hispanic vote. Yes, the GOP should focus on Texas’ border districts because of the baleful effects of mass immigration on the Hispanics who live there. But going beyond that and trying to promote a broader Hispanic exodus from the Democratic Party is a stretch. Moreover, it’s a major misallocation of resources at a time when the GOP still hasn’t fully consolidated the white working class vote.

The GOP-Con Inc. grifters must learn that they can’t lump all Hispanics into one group. The results from South Texas cannot be applied to other Hispanic groups nationwide.

That’s because Tejanos, the rightward-moving non-Mexican Hispanics, have more in common with America’s white working class, which is predominantly concentrated in the Rust Belt. In many respects we could be witnessing an ethnogenesis, where Tejanos realize they share interests with Middle America and have no desire to join the Democrats’ anti-American coalition. Tejanos have strong white roots. Their ancestors include Spanish conquistador settlers, as well as German and other European immigrants, and with working-class whites, have an economic interest in keeping low-wage immigrants out of the country to protect jobs and strengthen labor’s negotiating power. Tejano leaders such as Juan Seguin joined the predominantly Anglo revolutionaries to break free from Mexican dictator Santa Anna’s despotic rule during the Texas Revolution. These Spanish speakers and their posterity have forged a separate identity since then.

Thus, if Republicans bothered to research this history, they would quickly learn that events In South Texas cannot be so easily applied to other parts of the Hispanic population in the US.

I predict that South Texas Hispanics will abandon the Democrat Party because of the unprecedented invasion at the southwest border and their unique identity. They’re a well-rooted partly-Hispanic population that does not have solidarity with the post-Hart Cellar wave of Mexican migrants.

And that is why efforts to replicate South Texas’ success with large Hispanic populations elsewhere are destined to fail. Granted, Republicans gained among Hispanics in large metro centers in 2020 [Culture wars fuel Trump’s blue-collar Latino gains, by Marc Caputo, Politico, November 21, 2020]. But fully flipping Hispanics will be difficult because of their leftist proclivities on economics and the cold, hard fact that large portions of them don’t identify with Historic American Nation.

As well, numbers matter in a mass democracy. South Texas districts are not very populated. Knowing how angry border counties are about Biden’s planned invasion, Democrats might just surrender those sparsely populated areas to the GOP and intensify their outreach in urban and suburban areas. Urban centers are filled with large swathes of illegal aliens and their children, which are a seemingly limitless pool of prospective voters to tap into. Trading a few Tejano “deplorables” for a massive block of illegal aliens in urban centers nationwide is a safe gamble.

As for Hispanic outreach in general, I could care less. Last time I checked, any nationalist movement worth its salt would devise electoral strategies and public policies that serve the Historic American Nation, not ethnic groups that played no meaningful role in founding and building this great nation.

If Republicans overperform with certain Hispanic subgroups, good for them. But the key issue of our time is consolidating the white working class vote to protect our national character.

Anything else is a distraction.

Pedro de Alvarado is a Hispanic dissident who is well aware of the realities of race from his experience living throughout Latin America and in the States.
As a native of lands conquered by brave Spaniards but later subverted by centuries of multiracial trickery and despotic governance, Pedro offers clear warnings to Americans about the perils of multiracialism.