The conventional knowledge that Republicans will do effectively in the midterms hasn’t normally been borne out in the polling numbers, which have revealed Democrats primary in several competitive Senate races close to the region. That discrepancy can also be found in the relatively significant hole involving FiveThirtyEight’s Lite and Deluxe midterm forecasts.

In this installment of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of this and response listener questions about the forecast model. They also touch on the well being of the polling business and how a lot President Biden’s achievement in a prospective 2024 key election hangs on Democrats’ efficiency at the midterms.

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